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To present a formal model for service delivery which can be used to describe a service delivery system and generate simulation models. These simulation models are at the core of an ongoing effort to optimize the workforce delivering IT support services in IBM's Global Delivery Centers. A pilot in the Bangalore and Hyderabad delivery centers is already running. The trials and tribulations involved in taking elegant theories into practice will be discussed.

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Going public is an important milestone for a firm. There are significant benefits and costs associated with the decision of being listed. On one hand the firm can raise the required capital for investment and firm growth through the IPO, make the firm more visible, transfer the risk to shareholders, relax the borrowing constraints and be more competitive in the product market. On the other hand, going public is associated with significant amount of fixed and variable costs. The process and the uncertainty associated with raising equity are further complicated by the adverse selection problem associated with yet to be publicly observed innovations of the firm. The investors may feel that they have inferior information about the future prospects of the firm relative to the management which may lower their propensity to invest. The informational superiority of the firm leads to the standard lemons problem and it has to underprice the issue to give enough incentives to the investors to invest in the IPO. This is an indirect cost and lowers the IPO proceeds and adds to the listing cost. Facing these trade-offs the firm manger would want to time the IPO decision well which makes the decision process inherently dynamic in nature. In this paper we formulate a dynamic programming based structural model of the going public decision and estimate the hidden parameters using data from Indian IPOs.

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The crisis of 2007-09 has been characterized by a sudden freeze in the market for short-term, secured borrowing. We present a model that can explain a sudden collapse in the amount that can be borrowed against finitely-lived assets with little credit risk. The borrowing in this model takes the form of a repurchase agreement (“repo") or asset-backed commercial paper that has to be rolled over several times before the underlying assets mature and their true value is revealed. In the event of default, the creditors can seize the collateral. We assume that there is a small cost of liquidating the assets. The debt capacity of the assets (the maximum amount that can be borrowed using the assets as collateral) depends on the information state of the economy. At each date, in general there is either “good news" (the information state improves), “bad news" (the information state gets worse), or “no news" (the information state remains the same). When rollover risk is high, because debt must be rolled over frequently, we show that the debt capacity is lower than the fundamental value of the asset and in extreme cases may be close to zero. This is true even if the fundamental value of the assets is high in all states. Thus, a small change in information, as measured by a change in the fundamental value, can lead to a “market freeze." Interpreted differently, the model explains why discounts in overnight repo borrowing, the so-called “haircuts," rose dramatically during the crisis for asset-backed securities with low credit risk once bad news about the underlying cash flows arrived.

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Although the rapid growth of online applications via the internet offers convenience for customers, it has excessively increased the volume of erroneous data. Problems such as poor interface design, limited typing skills, language deficiencies or deliberate falsification of data all lead to errors in the input supplied by the applicant. In this paper, we analyze identity risk due to inaccurate or incomplete information about an entity or a person and the ensuing financial implications for businesses. We first study how to estimate an optimal threshold level for a given black box matching algorithm when restricted by only a small sample of training data. We propose different threshold estimators and analyze their asymptotic properties. Next, we explore the option of procuring additional information to help improve accuracy of record matches. We develop a model to compute two threshold levels between which it is optimal to exercise the option of buying additional information. Lastly, we present numerical results demonstrating the properties of the threshold estimators and the properties of the model with the option to procure additional information.

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Two problems in Information Systems Design that require a graph-theoretic approach will be presented. The first problem, referred to as the Maximum Commonality Assignment Problem (MCAP), arises in the context of Extreme Programming (XP) while assigning developers to modules in a software project. In common XP practice, a pair of developers is assigned to a single module. This pair can potentially be split, i.e., a developer may be paired with more than one other developer to work on different modules in the project. While the practice of pair splitting could result in knowledge dissemination benefits, it requires a developer to adjust to the coding practices of several other developers. We examine the benefits of pair splitting under several specific graphs (e.g., a tree, a bi-partite network, etc.). The second problem, referred to as the Structured Search Problem (SSP), arises in the context of search in Social Networks. While searching in a social network, the end user often requires a subset of nodes within the network that optimises a set measure. The nature of search in a social network is therefore more complex than search on the world-wide-web. Here two specific search problems: the Elite Group Problem and the Portal Problem will be presented. Opportunities for further research will be discussed.

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When viewed as expropriable, intangible assets, resources offer a double-edged sword. Since they are non-rival, sharing of resources can generate substantial benefits. Yet, since they are nonexcludable, such sharing induces the temptation to misappropriate the resource. This tension is acute when young, startup firms and their financiers possess complementary resources. This paper studies how the financing mode chosen by entrepreneurs and their financiers balances the tension between resource sharing and the temptation for resource misappropriation induced by such sharing. The model analyzes the financing choices that differ in their intensity of resource sharing — corporate venture capital, independent venture capital, and bank/ angel financing. The model predicts that financing choices involving more intense resource sharing predominate when (i) intellectual property protection is stronger; (ii) product market competition is lower; and (iii) when the resources are difficult to expropriate.

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In this paper we discuss how several macroeconomic features of the 2001-2009 period may have resulted from a process in which financial markets were trying to allocate risk between heterogeneous agents when productive investment opportunities are scarce. We begin by showing how heterogeneity in terms of risk tolerance can cause financial markets to propagate transitory shocks and induce higher output volatility, albeit with a higher mean. We then show how this simple heterogeneous agent framework can explain an expansion driven by the growth in consumer debt, and why the equilibrium path of such an economy is likely fragile. In particular, we demonstrate that the emergence of a small amount of asymmetric information can make the economy susceptible to changes in expectations that can induce large reversals of financial flows, the freezing of assets and a recession that can persist despite high productivity.

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A selective overview of recent events highlighting the need for better data and modelling of house prices. The seminar will also address current best practice and its drawbacks, and some recent work on constructing better house price indices. The seminar will include an overview of some recent work on modelling housing markets.

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Prior research has shown that firms who generate earnings growth by improving profitability create value for shareholders, while firms who generate earnings growth through investment destroy value. This paper examines whether compensation committees take this into account while determining CEO compensation. We first confirm the results from prior research that internally generated growth is perceived by markets to add value while investment-driven growth does not. We find that while internally generated growth is positively associated with compensation, so is investment-driven growth. There is evidence to suggest that the weight placed on investment-driven growth in earnings is higher despite such earnings growth not delivering value to shareholders. We find partial support for the hypothesis that institutional investors act as monitors to ensure that managers are compensated efficiently. The presence of institutional ownership increases the weight on internally generated growth, but does not reduce the weight on investment-driven growth. We further show that value oriented institutional ownership increases the sensitivity of compensation growth to internally generated earnings growth and reduces the sensitivity to investment-driven earnings growth. Contrary to this, growth oriented institutional ownership increases the sensitivity of compensation growth to investment-driven earnings growth. Our results indicate the importance of understanding the different sources of earnings growth in the determination of executive compensation.

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Financial engineering offers the potential to significantly reduce consumption fluctuations faced by individuals, households, and firms. Yet much of this promise remains unrealised. In this paper, we study the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product designed to compensate low-income Indian farmers in case of deficient rainfall during the primary monsoon season. We first document relatively low levels of adoption of this new risk management technology: only 5-10% of households purchase insurance, even though rainfall variability is overwhelmingly cited by households as the most important risk they face. We then conduct a series of randomised field experiments to test theoretical predictions of why adoption may be low. Insurance purchase is sensitive to price, with an estimated extensive price elasticity of demand between -0.66 and -0.88. Credit constraints, identified through the provision of random liquidity shocks, are a key barrier to participation, a result also consistent with household self-reports. Several experiments find an important role for trust in insurance participation. We find mixed evidence that subtle psychological manipulations affect purchase, and no evidence that modest amounts of financial education changes participation decisions. Based on our experimental results, we suggest preliminary lessons for improving the design of household risk management contracts.

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In this paper we extend the literature on multiple directorships by investigating the relationship between busy outside directors and firm performance for the top 500 Indian firms during the period of 2003-2006. We study the Indian corporate market since reputational capital (the argument that multiple board appointments signal director quality) is more important in emerging markets, such as India, where there are significant institutional voids. The presence of such institutional voids precludes a simple extrapolation of findings reported within a developed market such as the US to be applicable to emerging markets. We find busy boards are positively associated with firm performance. We strengthen our conjecture regarding the reputational capital of busy directors by showing that directors’ qualifications and their age determine their busyness. We also find that standalone firms needing more reputational capital tend to have a significantly greater number of busy directors. These findings confirm the notion that busy directors add significant value to corporations in emerging economies even if they do not add value in developed markets.

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Replicating portfolio and risk-neutral pricing has long been the dominating idea in pricing financial derivatives. Risk-neutral pricing and the accompanying trading strategy is optimised for the best performance and hence is extremely susceptible to model inaccuracies. While in ideal situation, such pricing and the accompanying trading strategy will be able to generate risk-free profit (arbitrage), it can turn out to be disastrous under even small model perturbations. In this talk we focus on a trading strategy involving a call option on an asset that will perform stably under small model inaccuracies. The strategy is a switching one between the asset, buying the call option and writing the option. Our motivation comes from safeguarding performance under the worst conditions. The stability of our strategy comes from the fact that the functions used to trigger the switches are relatively stable under model perturbations. Given an asset we compute two critical thresholds for option premium determined by the performance of the option systems. Below the lower critical threshold, the strategy is to buy the call option. Above the upper threshold, one should write the asset. And between the thresholds one should go with buying and holding the asset. Although the strategy is motivated by simple examples, it can be generalised to any profitable asset. We implemented our strategy on S&P-500 index market data to test its performance. We performed 56 months ex-ante trend-following tests. We will present the results and some interesting observations about behavior of option premiums. We shall also take a quick glance into the stable strategies involving several options.

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This paper presents new evidence for the effect of financial integration on the sen- sitivity of business growth to local credit supply. I estimate the marginal reduction in the dependence of business growth on local credit growth after an increase in market- level financial integration. To consistently identify these effects, I exploit the timing of intra and inter-state bank-branch deregulation by (1) using a difference-in-differences framework and (2) using deregulation as an instrument for measures of within-state and across-state financial integration. Analyzing a comprehensive market-level panel data set from the United States for the years 1977 to 1997, I find that intra-state deregulation results in an 80% reduction in the effect of local credit supply growth on mid-sized establishment growth (20-99 employees) in MSA markets. The marginal reduction in the sensitivity of firm growth to a fall in the deposit growth rate of .05 is 12% of the average firm growth rate. For inter-state deregulation in non-MSA mar- kets, these figures are 80% and 12.5%. These effects are economically significant at the margin of business growth. The magnitude and statistical significance of these estimates are similar across difference-in-differences and IV specifications. I also find effects of similar magnitude using employment growth and payroll growth as measures of firm growth. These results suggest that an increase in financial integration lowers the volatility of growth for bank-reliant firms and that insufficient financial integration leads to allocative inefficiencies in the expansion and contraction of firms in response to local credit supply shocks.

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Though marketers are well aware that typical consumers have difficulty estimating the usefulness of really new products (Hoeffler 2003), little research has focused on which consumers to use in the new product development process, particularly in developing radical innovations in the consumer goods industry. We develop a methodology to identify these “right” consumers and show that in a new product setting in two categories, they are more likely to develop new product concepts that typical consumers would find it more appealing. We argue that the right consumers possess what we call an “emergent nature,” i.e., an ability to have foresight with respect to new product ideas. Our approach involves a calibration and validation phase of scale development and construct measurement, along with six studies for concept development and market reaction that show that the product concept developed by the emergent group is found most appealing by mainstream consumers. Our conclusions are based on the results from two product categories: home delivery of goods and oral care, and provides an initial test of using emergent consumers in improving concept development. In both categories, the concept developed by the high emergent group was rated significantly higher than the concepts developed by three other concept development teams: lead users, dispositionally innovative, and average.

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Takeovers result in the transfer of bondholders’ claims from the target to the acquiring firm, providing a setting to examine the impact of shareholder power on bondholders. We find that excess returns to target bondholders at M & A announcements are positively related to the holdings of the top 5 acquirer institutional owners, a measure of shareholder power. This supports the view that stronger shareholder power, through superior monitoring of managers, can be beneficial to bondholders as well. Our findings are robust to various proxies for shareholder power, adjustments for endogeneity, controls for target shareholder power, and other controls for firm and deal characteristics that have been shown to affect bondholders’ wealth during takeovers.

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The paper explains how startups and mature firms systematically differ in their innovative output when they enter “new to the firm” technological niches. We analyze data from 128 biotechnology firms from their startup phase and track these firms over time. Our analyses reveal that the organizational age at which the firm branches into new technological niches significantly influences its innovative activity. Branching in startups enhanced both the quantity and impact of its inventions but improved only the quantity of inventions in mature firms. The implications of these findings for the literature on dynamic capabilities, innovation and entrepreneurship are discussed.

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In this study, we investigate the impact of Chinese news on seven stock markets in US, UK, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mainland China. Using daily returns data and news data from Reuters News Service, we provide empirical evidence that number of daily news items about China has significant positive effect on the volatility of daily returns of all seven markets. Results indicate that macroeconomic news is significant for all markets, international trade news is significant for all but Hong Kong stock exchange and Chinese political news significantly impacts markets in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mainland China.

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Through recent technical advances, multiple resources can be connected through the Internet to provide a computing grid for processing computationally intensive applications in parallel. Unfortunately, parallel processing requires additional development effort, synchronization overhead and is not always algorithmically possible. In this paper, we develop an approach termed sequential grid computing, that augments a computing grid where parallelization is not cost-effective or possible. The sequential grid infrastructure takes advantage of idle processing power, routing jobs that require lengthy processing through a sequence of processors. We present two models that solve static and dynamic versions of the sequential grid scheduling problem. In the static version, the model maximizes the chance of completion within service level agreement parameters. In the dynamic version, the static version is modified to accommodate real-time deviations from the plan. We develop solution procedures for each model. Resultant computational experiments highlight a) situations where the static and dynamic models provide improvement over scheduling the job on a single processor and b) the factors that affect the quality of solutions obtained. We also outline future research issues related to the sequential grid computing environment described here.

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Traditional revenue management models assume that the customers arrive with the intention of purchasing a particular itinerary. If this particular itinerary is available for purchase, then the customer purchases it. Otherwise, the customer leaves the system without purchasing anything. These models still find applications in certain settings where the products are well-differentiated. However,their applicability to important revenue management settings, such as airlines and hotels, are diminishing, as the customers nowadays view a wide array of itineraries and make a choice between the itineraries that are available for purchase. In this talk, we discuss revenue management models that capture the customer choice behavior. We present models, tractable solution methods and computational insights.

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In this paper, we investigate the impact of federal research funding on R&D expenditures in life sciences at U.S. universities. Since most of the federal funding in life sciences is from the NIH, this investigation can shed light on whether awards made by the NIH spur funding from non-federal (private) sources, thereby aiding the mission of NIH to encourage application of basic knowledge. We use data from NSF for federal and non-federal funding and CRISP for NIH-specific funding, and use the university-year combination as the unit of analysis. We use fixed effects instrumental variables estimation to estimate the causal effect of federal funding on non-federal funding. The methods account for the possibility of spurious correlation between federal and non-federal funding -- that is factors specific to the university (say, quality or reputation) might be positively correlated with the university receiving both more federal and non-federal funding. We use predicted NIH funding as the instrument for federal funding. To estimate predicted NIH funding, we first calculate the shares of different NIH institutes in the funding a university received in the base year of analysis – these shares will differ by the specialization of each university. We then calculate the funding universities would have received in subsequent years based on aggregate growth in the budgets of various NIH institutes if the same base-year institute share had persisted. Year-to-year budgets of different NIH institutes and therefore the predicted funding values calculated according to base-year shares are unlikely to be related to changes in other factors that drive a particular university’s activity. The predicted value of funding is therefore a useful “instrument” for the actual federal funding a university receives, and allows us to attribute causality to federal funding. Our results indicate that a dollar increase in federal funding leads to a 23 cent increase in funding from non-federal sources. In other words, increase in federal funding leads to a more than a dollar-for-dollar increase in life science R&D expenditures at universities. Our evidence also suggests that the screening process of the NIH might send a useful signal on recipient quality to private funding sources: non-research universities and those that historically have been less funded are much more likely to receive a boost in non-federal funding from federal funding.

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We analyze commonality in informed trading across stocks, and how informed trading varies with the structural and trading characteristics of a firm. We thereby isolate the residual level of informed trading that is unrelated to commonality, trading characteristics, and structural charac-teristics and analyze this measure with respect to its characteristics and pricing relevance. We find evidence of commonality in informed trading, and a systematic dependence of the level of informed trading on firm characteristics, such as, tick size, the existence of options, and the size of the ownership stake of outside parties. Most importantly, we find that the residual level of in-formed trading is the component of informed trading most strongly related to required returns. This indicates that an important part of the information risk premium is related to the inability to differentiate between price fluctuations that are caused by changes in fundamental value from random price moves.

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Delay announcements informing customers about anticipated service delays are prevalent in service-oriented systems. Which delay announcements a service provider should use is a complex question, and its answer depends on both the dynamics of the underlying queueing system and on the customer behavior. We examine this problem of information communication by considering a model in which both the firm and the customers act strategically: the firm in choosing its delay announcement, and the customers in interpreting these announcements and in making the decision about when to join the system and when to balk. We characterize the equilibrium language that emerges between the service provider and her customers. The analysis of the emerging equilibria provides new and interesting insights into customer-firm information sharing. We show that even though the information provided to customers is non-verifiable and non-credible, it improves the profits of the firm and the expected utility of the customers. Further, the information could be as simple as “High Congestion”/“Low Congestion” announcements, or could be as detailed as the true state of the system. We also show that firms may choose to shade some of the truth by using intentional vagueness to lure customers. (Joint work with Gad Allon and Itai Gurvich).

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Two experiments examine how a set of motivational, cognitive and situational factors drives consumers’ value construction and bidding in auctions. A motivational antecedent, bidder goals (winning the item versus acquiring it at a price consistent with their value) is examined along with two cognitive factors: value precision (the width of a provided price range) and value salience (whether or not participants’ report an initial value for the item prior to the auction). The experiments involve a descending and an ascending auction respectively, each embedding manipulations of a situational variable (wait time at each price step). The average prices realized in the two auctions differed. Contrary to Milgrom and Weber’s (1982) seminal theoretical prediction for affiliated value auctions, bidders in the descending auction paid more relative to bidders in the ascending auction. In both auction formats, winning focus bidders bid higher than value focus bidders, but this goal effect was attenuated when values were more precise and/or salient. Wait time moderated the goal effect differently across the two auction formats. In the descending auction, a longer wait time elicited higher bids from winning focus bidders but not from value focus bidders. In the ascending auction, a longer wait time lowered bids from value focus bidders, but not from winning focus bidders. The comparative results provide insights into the behavioral underpinnings of consumer value formation and bidding in auctions and suggest implications and future research directions.

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Convergence in the electronics sector has allowed the addition of new functionalities to products (e.g., mobile television on a Cell Phone). It is proposed that the goal congruence of the added functionality(i.e., whether it has similar / different goals as the base product) would affect the relative gain to high versus lower quality brands. While lower quality brands would gain more than high quality ones when a congruent functionality is added, high quality brands would gain more than lower quality ones for an incongruent addition. The former hypothesis was confirmed significantly and the latter directionally in two experimental studies.

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Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) provides a promising foundation for verifying the authenticity of communicating parties and transferring trust over the Internet. A key issue in PKI is how to process digital certificate revocations. In this study, we first collect real data from VeriSign and suggest a functional form for the probability density function of certificate revocation requests. We then provide an economic model based on which a certificate authority can choose the optimal Certificate Revocation List (CRL) release interval considering the intrinsic properties among different types of certificate services. We also draw some insights by comparing the performance of four different CRL strategies.

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We investigate the disciplining role of debt in publicly-held firms by examining the relation between employee productivity and financial leverage. The unique feature of our study is that we incorporate outside employment opportunities for employees into the analysis. Consistent with the notion that the debt serves as a disciplining mechanism because agents exert additional effort to avoid the personal costs of financial distress, we find a positive concave relation between employee productivity and financial leverage; employee productivity initially increases with debt and ultimately decreases. We also find that as outside employment opportunities increase (decrease), the positive concave productivity-leverage relation becomes weaker (stronger). These relations are robust to controls for endogeneity and alternate measures of productivity. Our results suggest that employees rationally trade off the costs of leaving the firm against the expected personal costs of financial distress and the disutility of additional effort.

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This talk discusses the challenges involved in running a small specialist Higher Education institution. Based on the experience of running SOAS, it is evident that the challenges come from 3 inter-linked sources: government policy, the globalisation of higher education and significant changes in student expectations. The solutions to these challenges include the development of serious international partnerships and significant culture change within Universities.

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This study examines the potential of Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) in revealing the complexities of policy implementation processes at the Collective Action stage of Child Protection Policy in UK. The “model of the individual (Actors)” proposed by ACF is used as a lens for examining the action space of Social Workers, who are the key actors in policy implementation process in child protection. Results of the empirical analysis map the “reality” of the Actors that in turn reflects their belief systems. This belief system when compared to the Policy Beliefs shows severe dissonance between the two. The actors’ objectives and beliefs are grounded in Social Psychological concepts of ACF. To the contrary, the policy beliefs are embedded within control and surveillance mechanisms representative of New Public Management (NPM) agendas that are based on assumptions of opportunistic, self-serving behaviour of rational choice paradigm. The emphasis is on efficiency rather than effectiveness. The results show that the dissonance between Actors’ and Policy objectives adversely affects performance as well as the fate of the policy.

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Warranty costs annually exceed $35 billion in the United States alone and $50 billion worldwide for manufacturers in multiple industries. On an average the costs are around 2 to 3 percent of a manufacturer’s revenue, and rising. Four key factors are contributing to rising costs: increasing complexity products, lack of information sharing, increasing failures due to embedded software and electronics, and longer warranty periods. The problem is getting worse as manufacturers introduce more product models in the next few years than in the last 20—and use sophisticated components from a network of global suppliers. In this presentation we will discuss analytical and risk-assessment methods based on early-warnings from emerging issues and leading indicators from the pre-production, production, field, warranty and service. We will present advanced industry practices on emerging issue analysis and traceability techniques in identifying precisely the defective components and affected products (e.g. vehicles) in order to help drive selective recalls, reduced risk and costs. We will discuss evidence gathering techniques to classify design or manufacturing or supplier induced failures, which can provide substantial time and cost savings in risk-mitigation processes including cost-recovery from suppliers. We will cover advanced risk criteria and supplier quality practices that can provide much needed “heads-up” to quality analysts. These practices can save new product models from early market exits and customer dissatisfaction.

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Airline flight delays have come under increased scrutiny lately in the popular press,with FAA data revealing that airline on-time performance was at its worst level in 13 years in June 2007. Flight delays have been attributed to several causes such as weather conditions, airport congestion, air-space congestion, use of smaller aircraft by airlines, etc. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of the scheduled time block allocated for a flight on on-time arrival performance. We combine empirical flight data published by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), with the Newsvendor framework from the Operations literature to conduct this analysis. We obtained detailed data on each flight flown in the US in 2005 and 2006 from BTS. Other information that was collected includes aircraft type and registration information, weather information for all airports in the US, the great circle distance and angles for each flight leg, airport congestion etc. We first fit a probability distribution for travel time (demand), where the parameters of the demand distribution depend on variables such as distance, aircraft type, airline, origin and destination airport, airport congestion, etc. The “quantity” decision for each flight (scheduled time block) was then combined with the demand distribution to compute the implied “z” value and its associated service level for each flight. We tested several hypotheses about airline scheduled service levels with July 2005 domestic flight data. Our results show that airlines systematically “under-schedule” flights, i.e., the amount of time allocated for a flight (quantity) is less than the average demand expected for the flight. Our results also indicate that airlines do not maintain consistent service levels by adjusting their schedules based on the time of the day, origin airport congestion, and destination airport congestion.

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Most explanations for the success of high tech clusters are based on Institutional/industrial and regional economics, often ignoring the role of serial entrepreneurs and the dynamics of social capital. This seminar builds on an earlier paper to explore the redefiniation of "incubators".

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