Published PapersMurphy, Dermot., Thirumalai, Ramabhadran S. (2017) "Short-Term Return Predictability and Repetitive Institutional Net Order Activity", Journal of Financial Research, 40 (455-477)Read Abstract >Close >Half-hour returns are predictive of same half-hour returns in subsequent days. Using a unique dataset that provides masked trader identification and trader type, we find that the half-hour net order submission activity of institutional traders is positively and significantly associated with same half-hour returns on subsequent days, and that this relationship subsumes the return predictability in shorter intervals. We hypothesize that institutional net order activity is predictive of returns either because of repetitive order submission activity across days, or because of the slow diffusion of information that is initially revealed by institutional traders. Our evidence supports the former hypothesis.

Published PapersKapoor, Mudit.,Jagannathan, Ravi.,Ernst Schaumburg. (2013) "Causes of the Great Recession of 2007-9, The Financial Crisis is the Symptom not the Disease", Journal of Financial Intermediation, 22 (1), 4-29Read Abstract >Close >Globalization has brought a sharp increase in the developed world’s labor supply. Labor in developing countries – countries with vast pools of underemployed people – can now more easily augment labor in the developed world, without having to relocate, in ways not thought possible only a few decades ago. We argue that the large increase in the developed world’s labor supply, triggered by geo-political events and technological innovations, is the major underlying cause of the global macro economic imbalances that led to the great recession. The inability of existing institutions in the US and the rest of the world to cope with this shock set the stage for the great recession: The inability of emerging economies to absorb savings through domestic investment and consumption due to inadequate national financial markets and difficulties in enforcing financial contracts; the currency controls motivated by immediate national objectives; and the inability of the US economy to adjust to the perverse incentives caused by huge money inflows leading to a breakdown of checks and balances at various financial institutions. The financial crisis in the US was but the first acute symptom that had to be treated. A sustainable recovery will only occur when the natural flow of capital from developed to developing nations is restored.

Published PapersChava, Sudheer.,Oettl, Alexander.,Subramanian, Ajay., Subramanian, Krishnamurthy. (2013) "Banking Deregulation and Innovation", Journal of Financial Economics, 109 (3), 759-774Read Abstract >Close >We document empirical support for a key micro-level channel innovation by young, private firms-through which financial sector deregulation affects economic growth. We find that intrastate banking deregulation, which increased the local market power of banks, decreased the level and risk of innovation by young, private firms. In contrast, interstate banking deregulation, which decreased the local market power of banks, increased the level and risk of innovation by young, private firms. These contrasting effects on innovation also translated into contrasting effects on economic growth. Our study suggests that the nature of financial sector deregulation crucially affects its potential benefits to the real economy.

Published PapersAllen, Franklin.,Chakrabarti, Rajesh.,De, Sankar.,Qian, Jun.,Qian, Meijun. (2012) "Financing Firms in India", Journal of Financial IntermediationRead Abstract >Close >With extensive cross-country datasets and India firm samples, as well as our own surveys of small and medium firms, we examine the legal and business environments, financing channels, and growth patterns of different types of firms in India. Despite the English common-law origin and a British-style judicial system, Indian firms face weak investor protection in practice and poor institutions characterized by corruption and inefficiency. Alternative finance, including financing from all non-bank, non-market sources, and generally backed by non-legal mechanisms, constitutes the most important form of external finance. Bank loans provide the second most important external financing source. Firms with access to bank or market finance are not associated with higher growth rates. Our results indicate that bank and market finance is not superior to alternative finance in fast-growing economies such as India.

Published PapersBubna, Amit.,Prabhala, N R. (2011) "IPOs With and Without Allocation Discretion: Empirical Evidence", Journal of Financial Intermediation, 20, 530-561Read Abstract >Close >Book building is the dominant offering mechanism for IPOs in the U.S. and other markets. It is controversial, in large part because it gives underwriters extensive power over IPO allocations. Critics argue that allocations could be abused to generate kickbacks for underwriters while proponents hold that allocation power could improve pre-market price discovery. We examine the effect of varying underwriter power over IPO allocations in the Indian IPO market, exploiting natural variation induced by market regulations. When underwriters control allocations, book building is associated with lesser under-pricing, but this effect quickly dissipates when regulations withdraw allocation powers. Using proprietary data sets on IPO books, we examine how underwriters use allocation powers. We …find that allocation discrimination is pervasive, economically significant, and is used to differentiate between institutional bidders based on the size of the bid as well as non-bid information such as the type of the bidder and other soft information possessed by IPO managers. Our evidence supports book building theories in which giving underwriters allocation powers assists in pre-market price discovery.

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