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Intangible Assets:
A principal reason why it is difficult to value tech investments is that much of their value is represented not by physical assets that accountants show on the balance sheet but by intangible assets such as their capability for innovation. The value of Google’s net tangible assets is less than 10% of its market capitalization. Clearly, the stock market is valuing some assets other than the tangible assets when trading in Google’s shares. A common example of intangible assets is the value of the customer base of a telecom company. Valuations of telecom companies are often justified based on price multiples of number of customers. Implicit in such a simple valuation method is the assumption that the future cash flows depend only on the size of the existing customer base. Important in this calculation are the sustainable future profit margins and the likelihood of retaining the customers, both of which are assumed to remain constant over time. However, these key parameters in the valuation model depend fundamentally on the potential changes in technology, the actions and reactions of the competitors, and the selections made by customers from the choices offered by the competing companies. Would the acquisition of Hutchison’s customers enable Vodaphone to sustain higher margins and dominate the industry or would Vodaphone begin expanding its market share by targeting the more price-sensitive segment of the market? And, what would be the competitive response
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of other companies in the industry?All these strategic
and competitive interactions make the simple customer-multiple valuation models inadequate for calculating the value creating capability of an acquisition target. An investor must understand all of the relevant strategic forces to appropriately value the intangible assets of a tech company.
Real Options:
With a fast changing competitive environment, newly emerging technologies, and crystallizing customer attitudes about technology choices, companies investing in IT often enjoy new and often unexpected opportunities downstream from their initial investment that they would not have encountered absent the investment. For example, by investing in the internet based travel planning technology, American Express created a digital bridge linking it to its customers, which subsequently enabled it to offer several more lucrative internet based financial services to those customers.
Since additional information is available before the company must commit to investing further in the new opportunities or choose to pass them by, it is able to derive greater value than if it had to commit to those choices when making the initial investment. This value of information available because of the deferred commitment to new opportunities constitutes the value of the real options created by the initial investment in IT. |