Economic and Financial Impacts

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Several countries are witnessing the economic and financial impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic. There is lingering uncertainty about its severity and length.

With changes seen in global business practices and consumer behaviours, there seem to be stronger effects on economies than previously thought. The financial system has been impacted significantly with a predicted loss of global income that runs into trillions of dollars. This could worsen even further as the world economy is said to head into a recession. Developing countries will see increasing pressures on containing fiscal deficits and foreign exchange rate.

Our work aims to evaluate these impacts through interactions with academicians and industry veterans, surveys, research findings and publications.

Small and Medium Businesses Survey:

With the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), several millions of workers across diverse sectors and organizational types have been asked to self-quarantine and/ or work from home. In this context, it is valuable, necessary even, to understand the impact of the lock down on small and medium businesses in India. To understand these issues better, we request your participation in the brief online survey below about the impact of the lock down on your organization.

Survey Link: https://lnkd.in/gv5s7SE
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It’s not Economy vs. Lives, It’s Lives vs. Lives

Deepa Mani & Shashwat Alok

The contraction of economic activity due to the lockdown has led to intense discussions around the question of whether lockdowns are the appropriate policy response to the outbreak. How long of a lockdown can we afford? Is the stringency of the lockdown appropriate? Should the intensity of lockdown vary based on the exposure of regions to Covid-19 risk? These are all critical questions.

Above excerpt taken from a media publication. This is an ongoing study.

Read more:
Fortune India

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Here Today, Gone Tomorrow: COVID-19 and Supply Chain Disruption
 


Kanika Mahajan (Ashoka University) & Shekhar Tomar (ISB)

This paper looks at the disruption in food supply chains due to COVID-19 induced economic shutdown in India. We use a novel dataset from one of the largest online grocery retailers to look at the impact on product availability and prices in three major cities. We find that product availability fell by 10 percent for vegetables, fruits, and edible oils, while there was a minimal impact on their prices. The fall in availability is mostly on account of products, which were listed less frequently on the website in the pre-lockdown period. Additionally, the fall in availability was smaller for products that are manufactured near the retail centers. These findings suggest that supply chain disruptions are the main driver behind the observed fall in product availability.

Read more: 
Here Today, Gone Tomorrow: COVID-19 and Supply Chain Disruption


Read more: Live Mint

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Faculty Insights: Impact on the mutual fund industry

 


Prachi Deuskar, Faculty, Finance area at ISB, mentions that while the mutual fund industry saw explosive growth pre-COVID-19, the ongoing market turmoil has resulted in panic selling by investors. On one side, the way forward for the investors is to remain calm, the investment advisors and SEBI need to offer investor education and guidelines to investors.

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Faculty Insights: Impact on Digital Financial Services




Shilpa Aggarwal, Faculty, Economics and Public Policy area at ISB, talks about how COVID-19 could be a critical inflection point for digital financial services (DFS). Given that they deepen social safety nets, DFS reach and infrastructure should be expanded and strengthened post the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Faculty Insights: Big Data and Supply Chain Disruption



Shekhar Tomar, Faculty, Economics and Public Policy area talks about his recent paper where supply chain disruption due to the COVID-19 crisis was analysed using online data from e-tailers. While there was a 10% drop in availability of essentials, the supply chain started improving towards the end of the first lockdown. Online data, as a usual surrogate, thus can help in taking real-time policy decisions.

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Industry Insights: Leveraging Technology to detect misinformation
 



Joyojeet Pal touches upon the reasons for the spread of misinformation through online digital platforms. While platforms gain attention even if it is through misinformation, people continue to propagate it as it suits their beliefs and justify their actions through an emotional recourse if the facts don't support them. Joyojeet is an Associate Professor at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, on leave at Microsoft Research India as a Principal Researcher.
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