Country Fiscal Measure - Additional spending and foregone revenue in response to Covid-19

Visual depicts the fiscal measure by way of Additional Spending and Foregone Revenue in response to Covid - 19 (as % of GDP) of the four most affected Covid-19 countries. The four countries (USA, Brazil, India and Russia) have the highest number of Confirmed cases as on July 10, 2020 (Johns Hopkins Medicine Coronavirus Resource Centre). The fiscal measure data as of June 12, 2020 reveals the support provided is highest in USA (12.28%), followed by Brazil (6.53%), Russia (1.9%) and India (1.2%)

Construction Sector Growth in India

The share of construction sector in India’s GDP witnessed a steady decline since 2011-12, possibly because of lower and fluctuating growth. In 2019-20, the sector achieved a growth rate of 1.3%. Growth in this sector is employment elastic, estimated to be 1.1 (RBI,2014). Lower growth is a worrying factor looking at its ability to generate employment opportunities for the mass unskilled labour force in the country.

Temporal analysis of Cyclonic Storm in the Bay of a Bengal

Recurrent cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal have inflicted massive losses in the coastal regions of Bangladesh and India (particularly Orissa and West Bengal). The time series visual from 1950 to 2016 asserts that the area has witnessed around 87 storms, with intensity ranging from 35 to 140 kt in the last 66 years. The darker areas of the visual indicate greater intensity of storms which is seen to be on the rise.

India has 4th highest Covid-19 cases in the World

Visualisation represents growing trend of Covid19 cases across the world as on Jun 11 '20. USA leads the chart with 20,20,000 confirmed cases & 1,13,820 deaths. Whereas India ranks 4th surpassing UK with 2,97,535 confirmed cases and 8,498 deaths.

Data Source: https://lnkd.in/enC4_av

Death & Recovery Rate of top 5 Covid-19 affected states

The visual depicts the death rate and recovery rate of top five most affected Covid-19 states of India as on June 14, 2020. Maharashtra tops the chart with highest number of total confirmed cases followed by Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. Also, it could be observed that Delhi and Maharashtra have both the measures unfavourable when compared to national average, thus making them the worst hit states of India.

Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India

Quarterly GVA 2019-20

The visual depicts quarterly estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices for 2019 (at 2011-12 prices) and percentage change over previous years’ quarters, consolidated and across eight key sectors of economic activity. Since the lockdown was announced during the last week of March, therefore its major impact is expected to be felt in the first and the subsequent quarters of 2020. It is observed that Indian economy was already facing a slowdown since the first quarter of 2019 YoY and the same trend continued till the last quarter. The months' long lockdown with restrictions on both demand and supply side additionally stressed the economy. Stimulus in the right direction is the required urgently to revive it. Source: Press note on provisional estimates of annual national income 2019-2020 and quarterly estimates of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter (q4) of 2019-2020, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India, May 29, 2020. 

Source:  Press note on provisional estimates of annual national income 2019-2020 and quarterly estimates of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter (q4) of 2019-2020, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India, May 29, 2020.

Investors’ Sentiment in Indian Economy on the rise of Covid19 Cases

Covid19 adversely affected Indian economy within a month of its rise. Sensex tanked to 18% from Mar 2-Apr 24 with rising cases. Market touched a 2 year low on Mar 23, anticipating a lockdown. Economy may get back on its feet with Special Economic Package announced by Prime Minister of India.

Covid-19 impact on International Trade

Covid19 has gravely affected all sectors of the Indian economy, including international trade. As per the provisional estimates of RBI in April'20 exports exhibited a negative growth rate of (-)56.39% and imports registered a negative growth of (-)54.59% Y-O-Y. Downfall in exports is attributed to global economic slowdown, worsened by Covid19. On the other hand, imports shrunk due to large scale disruption in global supply chains and increased cancellation of orders. Export items severely affected are: gems & jewellery, leather and leather products, handicrafts; and worst affected import items are: electronic goods, petroleum crude & products, machinery, electrical and non-electrical. A revival package along with direct fiscal reforms is needed to protect the employment-intensive export sector.

Covid-19 curve in India

Nations across the world are striving hard to flatten the curve of Covid-19. For the same, India observed nationwide lockdown since March 25 and recently lifted few restrictions in its third phase.  Given the hard dichotomy prevailing before the governmnet - between the economy revival and public health safety, the panedemic curve does not seem to flatten in Indian circumstances as the cases on a given day are more than the previous day. The graph below depicts the 5-day moving average of the Covid-19 cases till May 8, 2020. It could be clearly observed that the curve of Indian Covid-19 cases is witnessing an upward trend. Alongwith this, the animated visual depicts the daily Covid-19 cases.

Source: Ministry of Health and family Welfare, Government of India (As updated on May 8, 2020)

NGOs role in figuring Covid-19

The laborious effort of frontline workers-Doctors, Paramedical Staff, Public Administrators, Police Forces in battling the deadly virus 24X7 is worth applauding. This list is incomplete and rather delusionary if the role of NGO’s is undermined. The depiction attempts to highlight the contribution of NGO’s vis-a -vis state government in feeding people during lockdown. More so, in 13 states the NGO’s have outperformed the state Government. Not only food, but NGOs have also provided relief or shleter homes to the needy poople affected by Covid 19 lockdown (Mostly including stranded migrant labourers). Apprised of the laudale efforts of NGOs, the Centre has entitled them to receive grains from the district administration or Food Corporation of India at below market prices to feed the vulnerable sections. The need of the hour is to put similar collaborative efforts and work in synegy in dealing the crisis.

Source: Central Government Reply to Supreme Court on Response status in tackling Covid-19 (India Today, April 9, 2020)

Impact of Covid19 on cereal arrivals in market

Covid Impact on Agriculture: Agricultural mandis in many parts of the country are operational amid the nationwide lockdown, but the process is gradual, and disruption persists. This is clearly evident from the data from the Agmarknet.gov.in. Cereals are the basic food requirements for the people of the nation. But in the first 15 days of April, the arrivals in market of different type of cereals have considerably reduced as compared to the arrivals for the same time-period of last year i.e. 2019.

Under the Fifteenth Finance Commission Project

Progressive elimination of revenue deficit keeps the state governments consistent with fiscal sustainability. The figure shows the performance of the government of Punjab vis-à-vis the FRBM target for revenue deficit (2012-13 to 2016-17). The shaded area depicts the gap between FRBM targets and the actuals. There is observed convergence in the performance of the government of Punjab vis-à-vis the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) target for the year 2016-17; although the State was not able to reach close to the assigned targets in the previous years.

Source: CAG State Finances Reports (2012-2017)

Fifteenth Finance Commission

Disregarding the fiscal prudence norms, the State of Punjab has not been able to reach close to the assigned targets of Fiscal Deficit. In the year 2016-17, the Fiscal Deficit went abnormally high to (-)11.02 as against the FRBM Fiscal Deficit target of (-)3.0, this is excluding the additional borrowings of Rs. 57.69 Billion under UDAY scheme. If this amount is included, then it will drive Fiscal Deficit to a new high. This explains the widening gap between the receipts and the expenditure of the government.

Source: CAG State Finances Reports (2012-2017)

Fifteenth Finance Commission

A low value of outstanding debt to GSDP Ratio indicates that the state economy is vibrant to pay back debts without incurring further debt. The figure depicts the total outstanding debt relative to GSDP with respect to FRBM and budget targets. During 2011-12 to 2015-16, the government of Punjab successfully maintained the ratio of total outstanding debt to GSDP within the prescribed limit. However, post 2015-16, a very high value of 42.72% as against the FRBM target of 31.49%; reflects the imbalance in the fiscal prudence of the state. This can be majorly attributed to UDAY loan and Cash Credit Limit accounts. The increasing debt GSDP ratio may increase the possibility of the state falling into a debt trap.

Source: CAG State Finances Reports (2012-2017)

Rich states have higher districts in Orange & Red Zones

As of April 24th, 2020, India had 17610 active #Covid19 cases with 718 fatalities. We have another five days of complete country level #lockdown, yet there is lack of clarity of with what after May 3rd. Ministry of Health & Family Welfare has classified the country’s districts in three zones - Red, Orange and Green, based on the severity of outbreak and the number of cases in the area. A quick look at the numbers shows that the rich states have a higher number of orange and red zones with the exception of Maharashtra. Why?

Size of the bubble indicates state GDP per capita.

Case – Fatality Percentage

The Global Pandemic is taking heavy toll on human life and the world is grappling with a faceless enemy unperecedently. Below pictograph depicts the Observed Case-Fatality Ratio in Indian States-number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases; with Meghalaya on top. The data referred in the depiction is upto April 25, 2020.

Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare; (As on April 25, 2020).

Elderly (60+ Age) People in India

About 8.6 percent of total population in India are above the age of 60 (Census, 2011). According to World Health Organisation (WHO), older people are at highest risk from COVID 19 (WHO, April 2, 2020). In India, both the Union Government and State Governments are trying to fix the problem of spread of COVID 19 through various administrative measures and healthcare facilities in specific target zones. The target zones are identified through the relative concentration of virus infected people in a locality. As elderly people are more prone to this infection, the concentration of this population needs to be taken another indicator while specifying the target zones. In the states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh, above 10 percent of their population are of above 60. The governments in these states need to be more pro-active to contain the spread of COVID 19.

Figure 1. Share (%) of Elderly People (Above age of 60) in 6the total population of State/UT

Inflation and Lockdown

The Consumer Price Index growth rate hauled down to 5.91% in March 2020 (Year on Year basis); lowest since November 2019. However, the figures must be inferred with caution since the field work for price collection of Consumer Price Index (CPI) was suspended with effect from 19th March 2020 and about 66 per cent of price quotations were received (Reserve Bank of India, 2020). On the left side, the combined inflation rates (Rural and Urban) of different groups is indicated. Amid lockdown, projecting the prices is difficult given the severe shocks both on demand side and supply side.

Source: CEIC Data and Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

Covid-19 Affected Regions and Indians Diaspora

The depiction below exhibits the spread of the pandemic Covid-19 across the World Health Organization’s regional groupings with select countries comprising Indian Diaspora. The range signifies the timeline i.e.,  reporting  of the first confirmed case of infection and stretches till the first case of casualty (Both need not be the same). It could be clearly observed that China of the Western Pacific Region was the first nation to initiate the timeline; while the European region forms the largest region to report such incidents; and the African region last to join the league.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/ (Data as Available on April 18; 2020)

Lockdown impact on Rural & Urban employment

The nationwide lockdown starting from March 25, 2020 has brought the economic activities to a standstill thereby impacting the job market. The unemployment levels both Rural and Urban have witnessed multiple jumps when compared to the figures of the previous year during same timeline. The unemployment rate represents the percentage of people who were looking for jobs but failed to find one. While the unemployment levels (both Rural and Urban) were higher even before the Lockdown announcement in last week of March when compared to the previous year; a significant increment of more than four times is observed in the first week of April (Week 14).

Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (Data range- March 1st week to Mid-April for the years 2019 and 2020)

Air Pollution (PM 2.5) in India pre & post the Covid-19 Lockdown

Air Pollution in India is a serious health issue. One of the prominent pollutants observed is PM2.5 . PM2.5 means the mass per cubic metre of air; containing solid particles and liquid droplets. The chief sources contributing to this pollutant are: Dust, Construction, Vehicles, Residential, Power Plants. The depiction here reveals the Air Quality Index of PM 2.5 of eight metropolitan cities of India from March 10, 2020 to April 7, 2020.

Source: The World Air Quality Index Project.

Covid19 Testing Centres Across Six Zones

With upsurge in Covid-19 infections; the government is attempting to scale up the testing facilities across all states in India. The depiction below throws a light on the current scenario of Covid-19 cases across six different zones (As updated on April 9, 2020) of India with corresponding number of testing centres available (As updated on April 7, 2020). 

Source: Number of Confirmed Cases- Ministry of Health and Family Welfare; Testing centres-Indian Council of Medical Research.

Health Infrastructure across Indian States

With the surge in Covid-19 cases, the pressure is ultimately building upon the health infrastructure across the states. One of the indicators of health services infrastructure is- Average population served per government hospital. The depiction reveals capacity variation across states.

Source: Central Bureau of Health Intelligence, National Health Profile, 2019.

Covid-19 Global Hotspots

Covid19 pandemic has now affected almost 8.5 lac people across the World and cases in the west are growing exponentially. It is emerging as one of the biggest Public Policy Challenge governments have ever faced. From complete lockdowns to general guidelines on social distancing, nations are using different approaches to tackle this pandemic. The pro-activeness and evidence based decision making approach can help save lives of billions across the world. Link here

Source : European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

COVID - 19 Cases in India Post National Lockdown

Government of India is relentlessly working to Combat Deadly COVID-19. The National Lockdown in India seem to potentially work by slowing down the pace of infections; nevertheless, it will be too early to comment on the same and understand the impact of this policy intervention both on the health emergency as well as on the economy. Below we depict the pattern of the COVID-19 cases in the first week post National Lockdown.

Source : Ministry of Health and Family Welfare

Under the Doubling Farmers' Incomes Project

The data presents price fluctuations for apples from Himachal Pradesh in the FY 2018. Apple other than being a cash crop, is also important cultivable crop of the region. As many farmers in the area are engaged in cultivation of apple. This data from www.agrmarknet.gov.in represents how the wholesale prices of apple has changed over the time in FY 2018.

Doubling Farmers' Incomes Project

The data presented is from www.agmarknet.gov.in, for Jharkhand State and commodity tomato. According to the data, the prices of tomato rose maximum in August and especially in the markets of Khunti and Gumla. As per the data the maximum modal price was approximately 15,000 rupees per quintal, which in general trends used to be 3,000-4,000 rupees per quintal.

Doubling Farmers' Incomes Project

The data of agricultural markets was collected from the financial year 2013 to FY 2018. According to this data, all the markets which have reported even once in the tiome frame have been considered function. As a result of this, the gap between the blue bars and the bold black line shows the number of registered markets that don’t report data. With Bihar being one of the states which have highest number of non-reporting markets.

Doubling Farmers' Incomes Project

The black dots indicate the location of various fruits and vegetable markets in India while various shades of blue indicate irrigated land as per the label. One can easily observe areas with high market activity also having large areas of irrigated land.

Doubling Farmers' Incomes Project

The brown dots indicate the location of various fruits and vegetable markets in India. One can easily observe epicentres of high market activity. 

Doubling Farmers' Incomes Project

 Image shows price variation in paddy in Punjab for 2018.

Doubling Farmers' Incomes Project

Map showing the contribution of various states towards production of oranges.

Doubling Farmers' Incomes Project

 Image shows the commodities traded in a high income market - The Ravulapelem Market, which majorly trades in bananas. 

Doubling Farmers' Incomes Project

Graph showing fluctuations in the price of Onion in a month (Nov,2017), in Andhra Pradesh.

Under the Quality of Education in Punjab Project

The data is for 2018-19 and it represents performance of students in Punjab in government managed schools across different districts. Individual performance data is aggregated (median scores) at district level for mathematics and english scores for classes 5th and 8th.  

The data depicted shows ranks of all the districts in Punjab based on their share of students in class 5th performing better than median performance (72.5/100) in maths across all districts. Ferozpur, Fazilka and Roopnagar are the top three schools whereas Amritsar, Bhatinda and Tarn Taran are the worst ranking districts in mathematics for class 5th. The median performance (68.13/100) in english across all districts is 68.13/100. SBS nagar, Fazilka and Ferozpur are the top three schools whereas Amritsar, Bhatinda and Tarn Taran are the worst ranking districts in mathematics for class 5th

Quality of Education in Punjab Project

The data depicted shows ranks of all the districts in Punjab based on their share of students in class 8th performing better than median performance (53.75/100) in mathematics across all districts. Gurdaspur, Faridkot and Hoshiarpur are the top three schools whereas Bhatinda Moga and Barnala are the worst ranking districts in mathematics for class 8th.  SAS Nagar, SBS Nagar and Roopnagar are the top three schools whereas Bhatinda Moga and Tarn Taran are the worst ranking districts in English for class 8th

R Shiny Dashboard for optimum cropping patterns

Cereals form a significant fraction of the agricultural produce in India. However, the current cropping patterns are far from optimum in terms of energy utilisation, protein generation, resilience in the face of climate vagaries and water consumption. To bridge this gap, the authors of “Assessing the sustainability of post-Green Revolution cereals in India” have used historical data on agricultural yield and irrigation to generate optimum cropping patterns for four cereals -Rice, Finger Millets, Pearl Millets and Sorghum, on a nationwide scale. These optimum patterns correspond to six objectives: maximising protein, and iron, minimizing energy demand, water consumption, and generation of greenhouse gases, and maximizing resilience.

In order to facilitate the adoption of these optimized patterns, the authors have envisioned a Shiny dashboard. Through a simple 3 step selection process, the dashboard presents the current and optimum statistics at the state and district levels. The user can select a region of interest, generate a custom cropping pattern and compare it with current and optimum scenarios.

Price Fluctuations in Onion in Maharashtra, India in 2019

In 2019, India saw a steep rise in the onion price, even though it is one of the leading countries for production of onion in the world.
 
Maharashtra, a leading producer of onion, also experienced an exorbitant rise in onion price.  Typically, four varieties of onion are sold in market in Maharashtra – Local, Hybrid, Others & Colored. Across all these varieties, the price for “other” variety rose the maximum – to Rs. 31,825 per quintal in Nashik, the largest onion producing district in the country, during the fourth quarter of the year.

Though all varieties of onion saw an increase in price, however, the “other” variety was hit the most where it reached to Rs.31,825/- per quintal by the end of the year from Rs.1,125/- per quintal in first quarter.

Source: https://agmarknet.gov.in/

Night Light across India 2016-17

  • Night-light data, which provide a numerical measure of brightness of the earth during the night, is a direct result of human activities and hold enormous potential in economic analysis.
  • The data represents the state’s radiance value as a percentage of total radiance.
  • Among the major states in India, night lights activity was the highest in Uttar Pradesh (11.73), Rajasthan(9.47), Maharashtra (9.30) and Karnataka (6.96).
  • The radiance values are measured in units nanoWatts/cm2/sr.
  • To view the interactive visualization, please visit this link

Source: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/viirs/download_dnb_composites.html#NTL_2015

Area, Production and Yield of cereals in India

The area harvested under rice and wheat increased by 26.2% and 136.7% respectively from 1961 to 2017 while the area harvested under Barley, Sorghum, and Millet declined by 79.5%, 67.9% and 51.2% respectively for the same period. The area under wheat was well below the area under sorghum and millet until 1970-72. The gap between the areas under rice and wheat has narrowed significantly since 1961. The production of wheat and rice has increased steeply by 795.8% and 215% while the millet production has increased by 49.6% from 1961 to 2017. These figures are consistent with the idea that green revolution in the late 1960s has displaced lower-yielding crops (millets, sorghum) and pulses with cereals with higher yield potential (rice and wheat).

Source : FAOSTAT

Area under production of Nutri Cereals in India

Total area covered under the production of Nutri Cereals such as Jowar, Bajra, Maize has witnessed a declining trend particularly during the post-green revolution period. Starting from 1950 to 1970s, the annual average area under production of nutri cereals was above 44 million hectares. Since 1980s, there is a steady decline in the trend and today, it stands at 24 million hectares which is around 50 percent less than the total area under production before 1980.

Source: Agriculture Statistics: At a Glance 2018, Department of Agriculture, Co-operation and Farmers Welfare

Aroma Mission

Aroma Mission is an initiative to improve the yield in aromatic plant cultivation such as Aloe Vera, Mehndi, Menthol, Mint etc. through new technology developed by Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), Government of India. Total area covered under the cultivation of Aromatic Plants stands at 2.25 lakh hectare (AgCensus 2010-11).

Small and Marginal (< 2 hectares of land holdings)

Semi-medium (<5 hectares of land holdings)

Farmers are the dominant players in this sector. Together, they share about 71 percent of area under the cultivation of aromatic plants. The mission aims to increase their profitability through research and development.
 
Figure. Category wise distribution (%) of area under aromatic plant cultivation in India

Note: The visualisation is developed by using India Data Portal

Under the Forest Governance Project

This visualization shows countries recognizing tenure rights & percentage of people living in restoration area. The data is from 113 developing countries broadly across three continents viz. Asia, Africa and Latin America.

To see the detailed visualization, visit here:

Forest Governance Project

This visualization shows a list of Non-timber forest products (NTFP) collected by the villagers from 7 blocks in Korchi, Gadchiroli district, Maharashtra and provides information related to:

1.     The population, Number of Households, names of NTFPs collected from the forest, quantity used for either self-consumption by the villagers or sale along with the selling price.

2.     Further, it also shows the legally approved Community Forest Rights (CRF) area in these blocks and the year when they received the ownership title.

To view the complete visualization, click here

Source: Primary Data collection (ISB)

Forest Governance Project

Follow the link to interact with the visualization showing crop production statistics using: total area under crops at the State and District level, Total production & Yield.

Data Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India.

e-Registration in Maharashtra: Towards Improving State Finances

The Department of Registration and Stamps, Government of Maharashtra serves as a vital contributor in the State Revenue. In the year 2014;  the department rolled out its flagship e-Governance initiative of  e-Registration for registering Leave and License Agreements to facilitate the citizens to register anytime, anywhere; thereby overcoming the deficiencies in erstwhile legacy system. The depiction clearly corroborates the success of initiative in terms of revenue generation; which multiplied tremendously since the year of commencement.

Source: Department of Registration and Stamps, Government of Maharashtra, 2019