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In a bid to counter the Covid-19 pandemic, India has embarked on one of the largest vaccination campaigns ever to be undertaken in the world. Following Government of India, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s operational guidelines, we assume that the supply chain infrastructure and resources of India’s UIP will be used for the Covid vaccination campaign. Although India has a strong and expanding Universal Immunization Program (UIP) for routine immunization (RI), it pales in comparison with the scale of Covid vaccination campaign in terms of the number of individuals to be vaccinated. Accordingly, we will require to estimate the magnitude of additional resources (cold chain equipment, transportation vehicles as well as vaccinators and other human resources) required for the vaccination campaign over and above those utilized for RI activities and calculate the corresponding incremental cost of obtaining these resources either from other parts of the public health system or from the private sector.
Success of the vaccination campaign depends on meticulous supply chain and operations planning and accurate estimation of the required budget and resources.
In this project, we use a formal supply chain model to estimate,
the total, and additional resources, required to support the COVID vaccination campaign, and
the incremental cost, i.e., cost of the additional resources and costs incurred on use of current resources for performing additional tasks.
We model the most commonly used UIP supply chain structure, starting from the state vaccine store (SVS) to distributing them to different vaccination sites (session sites) within the state.
Using this supply chain structure, we model individual districts within a state and estimate the additional resources such as vaccinators, vehicles and cold chain equipment’s required based on the target population to be vaccinated against COVID in each district. We assume the required additional transportation and storage resources can be rented at additional cost, while vaccinators and other personnel can be marshalled from other programs at some cost, e.g., by giving them a daily incentive/payment for the duration of the campaign. We also include compensation paid to personnel, including vaccinators, who are part of the RI resource pool to undertake additional tasks involved in the COVID vaccination campaign.
The model created can be used by state governments in conjunction with more detailed and granular data to obtain more accurate resource estimates, which can then be used as inputs into NHM budgets.
Incremental cost estimation for multiple states (Campaign duration: 6 months, Vaccination capacity: 100/session, Vaccination rate: 100/session)
Sarang Deo, Sripad Devalkar, Abhishek Reddy
We have developed a flexible modelling approach to calculate the incremental resource requirements, unit costs as well as total additional resources required for conducting the Covid vaccination campaign. This framework can also be used to evaluate alternate vaccination strategies and scenarios, e.g., number of months required to vaccinate the target population without additional resources, maximum throughput (vaccination rate/day), that can be achieved with the current available capacity of resources in each district, etc.
Optimize the Model and find more granular data by interacting with health officials
Development of decision support tool for creating resource mobilization plans at state/district/block levels and allocation of vaccine supply to different districts/blocks
Validating the feasibility to do vaccinations up to a certain level in the health system in a given duration
Estimation of feasible frequencies of sessions held at a given site in the health system to ensure campaign completes in 6-8 months
Article/whitepaper on estimating resource requirements and incremental costs for Covid-19 vaccination campaign in India
Thematic focus area: Managing healthcare delivery systems