About

In a bid to counter the Covid-19 pandemic, India has embarked on one of the largest vaccination campaigns ever to be undertaken in the world. Following Government of India, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s operational guidelines, we assume that the supply chain infrastructure and resources of India’s UIP will be used for the Covid vaccination campaign. Although India has a strong and expanding Universal Immunization Program (UIP) for routine immunization (RI), it pales in comparison with the scale of Covid vaccination campaign in terms of the number of individuals to be vaccinated. Accordingly, we will require to estimate the magnitude of additional resources (cold chain equipment, transportation vehicles as well as vaccinators and other human resources) required for the vaccination campaign over and above those utilized for RI activities and calculate the corresponding incremental cost of obtaining these resources either from other parts of the public health system or from the private sector.

Success of the vaccination campaign depends on meticulous supply chain and operations planning and accurate estimation of the required budget and resources. 

Objectives

In this project, we use a formal supply chain model to estimate,

  • the total, and additional resources, required to support the COVID vaccination campaign, and
  • the incremental cost, i.e., cost of the additional resources and costs incurred on use of current resources for performing additional tasks.

Preliminary Results

Incremental cost estimation for multiple states (Campaign duration: 6 months, Vaccination capacity: 100/session, Vaccination rate: 100/session)

PROJECT TEAM

Sarang Deo, Sripad Devalkar, Abhishek Reddy

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CURRENT STATUS

We have developed a flexible modelling approach to calculate the incremental resource requirements, unit costs as well as total additional resources required for conducting the Covid vaccination campaign. This framework can also be used to evaluate alternate vaccination strategies and scenarios, e.g., number of months required to vaccinate the target population without additional resources, maximum throughput (vaccination rate/day), that can be achieved with the current available capacity of resources in each district, etc.

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NEXT STEPS

Optimize the Model and find more granular data by interacting with health officials

Development of decision support tool for creating resource mobilization plans at state/district/block levels and allocation of vaccine supply to different districts/blocks

Validating the feasibility to do vaccinations up to a certain level in the health system in a given duration

Estimation of feasible frequencies of sessions held at a given site in the health system to ensure campaign completes in 6-8 months

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DISSEMINATION PLAN

Article/whitepaper on estimating resource requirements and incremental costs for Covid-19 vaccination campaign in India

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Thematic focus area: Managing healthcare delivery systems

Tags: Cost-effectiveness, Vaccination