COVID-19, Fiscal Stimulus and Credit Ratings
By Shekhar Tomar, Gautham Udupa, Anuragh Balajee
Covid Economics | April 2020
Covid Economics | April 2020
Citation
Tomar, Shekhar., Udupa, Gautham., Balajee, Anuragh. COVID-19, Fiscal Stimulus and Credit Ratings Covid Economics cepr.org/sites/default/files/news/CovidEconomics11.pdf.
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Covid Economics, 2020
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Abstract
COVID-19 pandemic has rattled the global economy and has required governments to undertake massive fiscal stimulus to prevent the economic fallout of social distancing policies. In this paper, we compare the fiscal response of governments from around the world and its main determinants. We find sovereign credit ratings as one of the most critical factors determining their choice. First, the countries with one level worse rating announced 0.3 percentage points lower fiscal stimulus (as a percentage of their GDP). Second, these countries also delayed their fiscal stimulus by an average of 1.7 days. We identify 22 most vulnerable countries, based on their rating and stringency, and find that a stimulus equal to 1 percent of their GDP adds up to USD 87 billion. In order to fight the pandemic, long term loans from multilateral institutions can help these stimulus starved economies.
Shekhar Tomar is an Assistant Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Indian School of Business (ISB). He completed his PhD from the Toulouse School of Economics in 2017 and worked as a Research Economist at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) between 2017 and 2019. His research lies at the intersection of macroeconomics, trade, and finance, and he extensively uses micro-data to answer macroeconomic questions in his work. During his stint at the RBI, he regularly contributed to policy work on monetary policy and trade issues in India.

Shekhar Tomar