Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence from India
By Shekhar Tomar, Pankaj Kumar, Swati Asnani, Jay Surti
Citation
Tomar, Shekhar., Kumar, Pankaj., Asnani, Swati., Surti, Jay. (2020). Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence from India .
Copyright
2020
Share:
Abstract
We use a novel survey data on inflation expectations of households to evaluate the role of inflation targeting (IT) regime in achieving anchored inflation expectations. The novelty of the data is that it is available both before and after the adoption of IT by India in 2015 and allows the comparison of inflation expectations between these twoperiods. We find evidence of anchored inflation expectations in every component of theconsumer price inflation, headline, food and non-food, only during the IT period. More importantly, there is a muted spillover from food inflation to both food and non-food inflation expectations in the IT period. The lack of spillover from food inflation, which remained equally volatile in both the periods, explains the anchored expectations and improved inflation performance under the IT regime in India.

Shekhar Tomar is an Assistant Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Indian School of Business (ISB). He completed his PhD from the Toulouse School of Economics in 2017 and worked as a Research Economist at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) between 2017 and 2019. His research lies at the intersection of macroeconomics, trade, and finance, and he extensively uses micro-data to answer macroeconomic questions in his work. During his stint at the RBI, he regularly contributed to policy work on monetary policy and trade issues in India.

Shekhar Tomar
Shekhar Tomar