Does Inflation Targeting Help Information Transmission?
By Shekhar Tomar, Jay Surti, Satadru Das
Citation
Tomar, Shekhar., Surti, Jay., Das, Satadru. (2022). Does Inflation Targeting Help Information Transmission? .
Copyright
2022
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Abstract
This paper studies the informational properties of inflation targeting (IT) in terms of financial market activity and particularly on market volatility in an emerging market context by using a unique natural policy experiment. We evaluate the impact of a hard switch to IT by India in 2015 on the information transmitted to the markets by central bank policy announcements. Our findings indicate that central bank monetary policy announcements exert a significant impact on bond market trading and yield volatility, largely reflecting new information provided by policy decisions. However, we find no significant change in the informational properties of monetary policy surprises after the switch to IT barring a modest increase in wait-and-watch behavior before monetary policy decision dates. Additionally, monetary policy announcements and surprises fail to significantly impact equity return volatility either before or after the switch to IT. Our results point to market perceptions of monetary policy being informative about future inflation, but not the future growth or outlook. To summarize, the switch to IT has not yet led to a significant change in the transmission of the information contained in the monetary policy announcements.

Shekhar Tomar is an Assistant Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Indian School of Business (ISB). He completed his PhD from the Toulouse School of Economics in 2017 and worked as a Research Economist at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) between 2017 and 2019. His research lies at the intersection of macroeconomics, trade, and finance, and he extensively uses micro-data to answer macroeconomic questions in his work. During his stint at the RBI, he regularly contributed to policy work on monetary policy and trade issues in India.

Shekhar Tomar
Shekhar Tomar