Managing EMS Systems with user abandonment in emerging economies
By Lavanya Marla, Kaushik Krishnan, Sarang Deo
IISE Transactions | April 2021
DOI
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/24725854.2020.1802086
Citation
Marla, Lavanya., Krishnan, Kaushik., Deo, Sarang. (2020). Managing EMS Systems with user abandonment in emerging economies IISE Transactions www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/24725854.2020.1802086.
Copyright
IISE Transactions, 2020
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Abstract
In many emerging economies, callers may abandon ambulance requests due to a combination of operational (small fleet size), infrastructural (long travel times) and behavioral factors (low trust in the ambulance system). As a result, ambulance capacity, which is already scarce, is wasted in serving calls that are likely to be abandoned later. In this article, we investigate the design of an ambulance system in the presence of abandonment behavior, using a two-step approach. First, because the callers’ actual willingness to wait for ambulances is censored, we adopt a Maximum Likelihood Estimator estimation approach suitable for interval censored data. Second, we employ a simulation-based optimization approach to explicitly incorporate customers’ willingness to wait in: (i) tactical short-term decisions such as modification of dispatch policies and ambulance allocations at existing base locations; and (ii) strategic long-term network design decisions of increasing fleet size and re-designing base locations. We calibrate our models using data from a major metropolitan city in India where historically 81.3% of calls were successfully served without being abandoned. We find that modifying dispatch policies or reallocating ambulances provide relatively small gains in successfully served calls (around 1%). By contrast, increasing fleet size and network re-design can more significantly increase the fraction of successfully served calls with the latter being particularly more effective. Redesigning bases with the current fleet size is equivalent to increasing the fleet size by 8.6% at current base locations. Similarly, adding 29% more ambulances and redesigning the base locations is equivalent to doubling the fleet size at the current base locations and adding 34% more ambulances and redesigning base locations is equivalent to a three-fold increase. Our results indicate that in the absence of changes in behavioral factors, significant investment is required to modify operational factors by increasing fleet size, and to modify infrastructural factors by redesigning base locations.

Sarang Deo is a Professor of Operations Management at the Indian School of Business (ISB). He also serves as the Executive Director of the ISB’s Max Institute of Healthcare Management, where he provides strategic leadership for ISB's healthcare initiatives through interdisciplinary research, education, and collaboration.

Professor Deo's research focuses on healthcare delivery systems, examining how operational decisions influence population-level health outcomes. His work spans a wide range of healthcare contexts, including influenza vaccine supply chains and ambulance diversion in the United States, HIV early infant diagnosis networks in sub-Saharan Africa, and formal and informal pathways for tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and treatment in India. His recent research has focused on designing and evaluating healthcare delivery models, with a particular emphasis on digital health and the integration of artificial intelligence into healthcare systems.

He regularly collaborates with leading global health organisations, including the Gates Foundation, the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI), and PATH. He currently serves on the World Health Organization's Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Tuberculosis (STAG-TB) and the Working Group for Non-Technical Evaluation under the WHO Global Initiative on AI for Health (GI-AI4H).

Prior to joining ISB, Professor Deo was an Assistant Professor at the Kellogg School of Management. He holds a PhD from the UCLA Anderson School of Management, an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, and a BTech from the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay. Before entering academia, he worked as a management consultant with Accenture.

Professor Sarang Deo
Sarang Deo