The Impact of US Cyber Policies on Cyber-Attacks Trend
By Kumar Sumeet, Matthew Benigni, Kathleen Carley
2016 IEEE Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI) | September 2016
Citation
Sumeet, Kumar., Benigni, Matthew., Carley, Kathleen. The Impact of US Cyber Policies on Cyber-Attacks Trend 2016 IEEE Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI) .
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2016 IEEE Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI), 2016
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Abstract
There is a general belief that cyber attacks on the United States are increasing, as indicated by the 30% increase in cyber-attack related news from 2014 to 2015. During the same time frame, however, the USA government enacted several policy measures meant to reduce or mitigate cyber-attacks. These recent developments have lead us to ask two questions, a) Have cyber-attacks on the United States actually increased, as perceived in the news media? b) What is the impact of changes in US cyber-policy on this trend in cyber-attacks? Our initial investigation reveals that in contrast to the perception, there has been a drop in the number of DDoS cyber-attacks on the USA. In this research, we compare the perceptions and the reality of cyber attacks by considering recent trends in cyber-related news and cyber-attacks (specifically DDoS type attacks). The analysis makes three important contributions: a) Using GDelt data, we show that from 2014 to 2015 the amount of news referring to cyber events have increased, but the sentiment expressed in such news has become more negative. b) Using DDoS-attacks data shared by Arbor Network, we show that from 2014 to 2016, there has been a marked decrease in the number of cyber-attacks on the USA. c) Using a time series intervention analysis, we show that the decline in cyber-attacks appears to be related to the changes in US cyber policy. In particular, the US President's authorization to prosecute malicious cyber actors significantly decreased the DDoS-attacks on the US.

Sumeet Kumar is an Assistant Professor of Information Systems at the Indian School of Business (ISB). He studies problems at the intersection of technology and society. He is interested in analysing user behaviour, quantifying polarisation on online forums , and finding advertisements disguised as regular content on online platforms. His current focus is on identifying implicit or hidden advertisements in videos posted on children’s platforms such as YouTube Kids.

Additionally, Professor Kumar has conducted research in software design and development, with particular emphasis on user experience. He has investigated the use of mobile phone sensors during emergencies to improve situational awareness. His study on the Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) service in the United States addressed several issues of critical importance to emergency alerts effectiveness and adoption. Notably, some of his research recommendations was included in the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) proposed changes to WEA.

He completed his undergraduate education at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur. He holds two Master’s degrees—in Software Engineering and in Machine Learning--both from Carnegie Mellon University, where he also earned his doctorate degree.

Sumeet Kumar
Sumeet Kumar