Trumping Immigration: Visa Uncertainty and Jobs Relocation
By Shekhar Tomar, Ritam Chaurey, Kanika Mahajan
Citation
Tomar, Shekhar., Chaurey, Ritam., Mahajan, Kanika. (2024). Trumping Immigration: Visa Uncertainty and Jobs Relocation .
Copyright
2024
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Abstract
We estimate the impact of immigration policy uncertainty in the US on the demand for workers in the sending country. To do this, we exploit the increased uncertainty around H-1B visas after President Trump's win in the 2016 Republican primary election. Using postings data from the largest Indian jobs platform, we find that firms more exposed to the shock increase their India-based job postings immediately after the heightened uncertainty. This surge is attributed to the relocation of jobs from the US to India for occupations more amenable to offshoring. India-headquartered firms lead this change and witness an increase in exports.
Shekhar Tomar is an Assistant Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Indian School of Business (ISB). He completed his PhD from the Toulouse School of Economics in 2017 and worked as a Research Economist at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) between 2017 and 2019. His research lies at the intersection of macroeconomics, trade, and finance, and he extensively uses micro-data to answer macroeconomic questions in his work. During his stint at the RBI, he regularly contributed to policy work on monetary policy and trade issues in India.
Shekhar Tomar