Dynamic Risk Management of Commodity Operations: Model and Analysis
By Sripad Devalkar, Ravi Anupindi, Amitabh Sinha
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management | March 2018
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management | March 2018
Citation
Devalkar, Sripad., Anupindi, Ravi., Sinha, Amitabh. (2017). Dynamic Risk Management of Commodity Operations: Model and Analysis Manufacturing and Service Operations Management pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/msom.2017.0647.
Copyright
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 2017
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Abstract
We consider the dynamic risk management problem for a commodity processor operating in a partially complete market and facing both price uncertainty and significant financial distress costs. The firm procures an input commodity and processes it to produce an output commodity over a multi-period horizon. We use a time-consistent risk measure to approximate the firm’s financial distress costs in a tractable manner and use financial trading to assign a market-based
value to the firm’s operational cash flows. We show that the resulting optimal operational policy has the same price and horizon dependent threshold structure that characterizes the known optimal policy when markets are complete or financial distress costs are small. Through numerical studies, we (i) quantify the value of using the optimal operational policy rather than a myopic policy and a policy that neglects to model, even approximately, financial distress costs, finding that this value is significant for firms that face moderate financial distress costs and have excess procurement capacity; (ii) establish that more acute financial distress costs reduce the firm’s throughput; and (iii) show that the benefit of financial hedging is considerable.
value to the firm’s operational cash flows. We show that the resulting optimal operational policy has the same price and horizon dependent threshold structure that characterizes the known optimal policy when markets are complete or financial distress costs are small. Through numerical studies, we (i) quantify the value of using the optimal operational policy rather than a myopic policy and a policy that neglects to model, even approximately, financial distress costs, finding that this value is significant for firms that face moderate financial distress costs and have excess procurement capacity; (ii) establish that more acute financial distress costs reduce the firm’s throughput; and (iii) show that the benefit of financial hedging is considerable.
Professor Sripad Devalkar is an Associate Professor of Operations Management at the Indian School of Business (ISB). His research interests fall under two broad themes - agricultural operations and Non-profit and public sector operations. Within these thematic areas, he is interested in understanding issues related to supply chain management and how the interaction of operational, financial, and risk management decisions affect outcomes.
He teaches the core Operations Management course in the PGP programme at ISB, as well as, an elective course on Logistics and Supply Chain Management.

Sripad Devalkar