Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India

By Kyle Davis, Ashwini Chhatre, Narasimha Rao, Deepti Singh, Ruth DeFries
Environmental Research Letters | June 2019

DOI

doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22db

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Citation

Davis, Kyle., Chhatre, Ashwini., Rao, Narasimha., Singh, Deepti., DeFries, Ruth. Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India Environmental Research Letters doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22db.

Environmental Research Letters, 2019

Abstract

Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation influence crop productivity across the planet. With episodes of extreme climate becoming increasingly frequent, buffering crop production against these stresses is a critical aspect of climate adaptation. In India, where grain production and diets are closely linked, national food supply is sensitive to the effect of climate variability on monsoon grain production. Here we quantitatively examine the historical(1966–2011)relationship between interannual variations in temperature and rainfall and rainfed yield variability for five monsoon crops —rice and four alternative grains(finger millet, maize, pearl millet, and sorghum). Compared to rice, we find that alternative grains are significantly less sensitive to climate variation and generally experience smaller declines in yield under climate extremes. However, maximizing harvested area allocations to coarse grains(i.e. holding maize production constant)reduced grain production by 12.0 Mtonnes(−17.2%) under drought conditions and 12.8 Mtonnes(−18.0%) during non-drought years (non-drought). Increasing the harvested area allocated to all alternative grains(i.e. including maize) can enhance production by +39.6% (drought) and by +37.0% (non-drought). These alternative grains therefore offer promise for reducing variations in Indian grain production in response to climate shocks, but avoiding grain production shortfalls from increased alternative grains will require yield improvements that do not compromise their superior climate resilience.

Ashwini Chhatre is an Associate Professor of Public Policy and currently serves as the Executive Director of the Bharti Institute of Public Policy (BIPP) at the Indian School of Business (ISB). Professor Chhatre is an interdisciplinary scholar whose research interests broadly centre on the dynamic cross-scale interactions between governance, economic development, and environmental protection. He relocated to India from the US in 2014 to join the faculty at the Indian School of Business, Hyderabad. He spent 13 years in the US, including five in graduate school at Duke University, where he was awarded a PhD in Political Science. In 2006-07, Professor Chhatre became the first Giorgio Ruffolo Post-doctoral Fellow in Sustainability Science at Harvard University, before joining the Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign.

Between completing his BA in Economics from the University of Delhi in 1990 and starting his PhD at Duke University, he spent 11 years working in different parts of India, primarily as a community organiser and social activist on issues related to natural resources such as land, forests, and water. A background in Economics, graduate training in Political Science, and a long-standing engagement with scholarship in Geography, Anthropology, Landscape Ecology, and Environmental History ensure that his research is never confined to a single discipline.

Professor Chhatre’s main research interests lie in exploring the intersection of democracy, environment, and development, with a focus on decentralised forest governance, climate change vulnerability and adaptation, and multifunctional agriculture. Over the past 20 years, the scope of his research projects has ranged from household-level to global analysis, consistently bridging research, policy, and practice.

He was the founding Editor-in-Chief of World Development Perspectives (2016-19), served as Senior Editor of Conservation Letters (2009-2014), and has published one book and several articles in leading journals including Science, and PNAS.

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