Short-Term Return Predictability and Repetitive Institutional Net Order Activity
By Dermot Murphy, Ramabhadran Thirumalai
Journal of Financial Research | December 2017
Journal of Financial Research | December 2017
Citation
Murphy, Dermot., Thirumalai, Ramabhadran. (2017). Short-Term Return Predictability and Repetitive Institutional Net Order Activity Journal of Financial Research .
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Journal of Financial Research, 2017
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Abstract
Half-hour returns are predictive of same half-hour returns in subsequent days. Using a
unique dataset that provides masked trader identification and trader type, we find that the
half-hour net order submission activity of institutional traders is positively and significantly
associated with same half-hour returns on subsequent days, and that this relationship subsumes
the return predictability in shorter intervals. We hypothesize that institutional net order activity
is predictive of returns either because of repetitive order submission activity across days, or
because of the slow diffusion of information that is initially revealed by institutional traders.
Our evidence supports the former hypothesis.
Ramabhadran S. Thirumalai is an Associate Professor of Finance (Practice) at the Indian School of Business (ISB). He is currently working on the impact of various regulatory changes on securities market pricing, efficiency, and liquidity. His research interests also include the trading behaviour of various types of market participants, with a particular focus on proprietary trading.
He teaches courses on Derivatives and Security Markets in the PGP programme, as well as, introductory finance courses in several programmes at ISB.

Ramabhadran Thirumalai